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Hurricane Hilary is an “impressive major hurricane” that is on track to hit Southern California as a tropical storm, a highly unusual event that could bring strong winds and unusual flooding.

Hilary, now off the west coast of Mexico’s Baja California, reached sustained maximum winds near 145 mph, a Category 4 storm, but by Saturday morning had already started to weaken to a category 3, with maximum sustained winds of 125 mph.

It is expected to be downgraded to tropical storm status by the time it reaches Southern California on Sunday. Southern California’s deserts could start seeing rain as early as Saturday.

Here are six things you need to know about Hilary:

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EXCEPTIONAL: This is the first time the National Hurricane Center has issued a tropical storm warning for Southern California.

TIMING: Tropical storm conditions are possible in Southern California by Sunday.

Hurricane conditions are expected in Baja California beginning Saturday night. Heavy rainfall that could result in flash flooding and landslides in Baja California could occur from late Friday through late Sunday.

FLOOD RISK: Southern California could see flash flooding, urban flooding and arroyo flooding, “with the potential for rare and dangerous impacts.”

Areas with greatest flash flood risk over the next three days.

Areas with greatest flash flood risk over the next three days.

(National Hurricane Center)

RAINFALL: Rainfall of 3 to 6 inches, with as much as 10 inches, could occur across portions of Southern California and southern Nevada. “Dangerous to catastrophic flooding is expected,” forecasters said. Officials were particularly worried about flash flooding in desert areas.

The area with perhaps the highest risk of a combination of wind, coastal flooding and rain would be San Diego County, particularly the San Diego metro area, forecasters said.

Coastal flooding of more than 1 foot could be a problem in areas like Long Beach, especially Belmont Shores, and low-lying areas on the Orange County coast.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions could begin in Southern California starting Sunday.

Hurricane conditions are expected along large stretches of Baja California’s western coast starting Saturday night.

STORM SURGE IN MEXICO: Hurricane watches or warnings are in effect for a large stretch of the western coast of Baja California, from Punta Abreojos north to Ensenada. Tropical storm watches and warning are also active elsewhere in Baja California and mainland Mexico. Forecasters warn of “dangerous storm surge” that is “likely to produce coastal flooding.”


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