Hurricane Melissa is a powerful Category 4 storm in the Caribbean. Maps show its forecast path.

Melissa strengthened rapidly into a Category 4 hurricane on Sunday and was forecast to bring “life-threatening and catastrophic” flash flooding and landslides to Jamaica and the southern parts of Haiti and the Dominican Republic over the next few days, the Miami-based National Hurricane Center warned.

Hurricane Melissa, the 13th named storm of the Atlantic season, isn’t expected to have major impacts on the mainland United States, but could turn out to be the strongest system this season.

Melissa’s forecast and path

As of 2 a.m. EDT Monday, Melissa’s core was about 130 miles south-southwest of Kingston, Jamaica, and about 315 miles south-southwest of Guantanamo, Cuba, the hurricane center said. Maximum sustained winds had strengthened to 150 mph, with hurricane-force winds extending some 30 miles from the storm’s center and tropical storm-force winds extending 195 miles. It was crawling west at 5 mph.

Melissa is now considered a major hurricane, which is defined as a Category 3 or higher with winds of at least 111 mph. If its winds reach 157 mph it would be a Category 5 — the strongest there is. Melissa is forecast to remain a major hurricane when it makes landfall in Jamaica later this week, the hurricane center said. 

“On the forecast track,” the center said, “the core of Melissa is expected to move near or over Jamaica tonight and Tuesday, across southeastern Cuba Tuesday night, and across the southeastern Bahamas on Wednesday.

“Additional intensification is forecast today, followed by fluctuations in intensity before Melissa reaches Jamaica. Melissa is expected to be a powerful major hurricane when making landfall in Jamaica and southeastern Cuba.”

When Melissa makes landfall, peak storm surge accompanied by destructive waves could reach 9 to 13 feet above ground level, according to the NHC.

Melissa could be the most powerful hurricane to hit Jamaica, CBS News Philadelphia meteorologist Andrew Kozak said Saturday.

“The island’s terrain makes it even worse,” Kozak said. “Jamaica’s mountains force the air to rise, and that creates more rain.”   

The strongest hurricane to hit Jamaica was Gilbert in 1988, Kozak said, which killed 45 people and caused more than $700 million in damage.

Hurricane advisories

A hurricane warning is in effect for Jamaica and the Cuban provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo, and Holguin. A tropical storm warning is posted for Haiti and the Cuban province of Las Tunas.

The Naval Station Guantanamo Bay said it was moving “non-mission-essential” U.S. citizens off the island in groups ahead of severe weather from Melissa.

Rainfall forecasts

Melissa is expected to bring 15 to 30 inches of rain to areas of Jamaica and 8 to 16 inches for southern Hispaniola through Wednesday, with a total of 40 inches possible in some places, the hurricane center said. For eastern Cuba, total rainfall could reach 10 to 15 inches, with as much as 20 inches in some spots today into Wednesday, the center added..

“Catastrophic flash flooding and landslides are probable across portions of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica,” forecasters said. Hispaniola is an island that includes Haiti and the Dominican Republic. 

Additional heavy rainfall is likely beyond Tuesday, the hurricane center said, but uncertainty remains about the more extended forecast.