Why two Republicans advancing in the race for governor is a long shot – Orange County Register

Each election cycle in California, Republicans bring up the same idea: Democrats will split their votes so much in the primary that two Republicans end up in the top spots, leading to a Republican-only general election for governor. Since Democrats usually win big here, this theory is tempting. It depicts a November ballot on which Republicans are guaranteed a win.

The flaw is not arithmetic. It is power.

California elections are shaped by money, organization, and disciplined political institutions that protect their governing coalition. No institution in California politics possesses more deployable capital or strategic coherence than public employee unions.

Public employee unions routinely spend well into nine figures per cycle. Even in 2024, without a governor’s race on the ballot, independent-expenditure committees funded by labor and business interests poured nearly $100 million into legislative contests, including more than $42 million in the final month alone. That level of spending is routine. 

This is not a scandal. It is how California’s top-two system operates when sophisticated actors are involved.

Shaping the opponent field is not hypothetical. In the 2024 U.S. Senate race, then-Congressman Adam Schiff and allied committees spent millions on advertising that elevated Republican former baseball player Steve Garvey while boxing out Representative Katie Porter — a successful effort to shape the runoff.

In those cycles, Democratic frontrunners controlled the board directly.

This cycle presents a different configuration. Aside from billionaire Tom Steyer, no Democrat has established overwhelming financial dominance. That does not eliminate the system’s capacity to intervene. It shifts greater influence on outside organizations — among them, public employee unions, which remain the most consistently well-heeled. The California Policy Center estimates that these public employee unions pull in around a billion dollars every year, spending it in many ways to dominate California’s political and policy-making processes. 

Labor is not the only strategic actor intent on preventing an all-GOP November showdown. San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan entered the race with substantial Silicon Valley backing, disclosing roughly $7 million in early direct fundraising support. And millions more dropped into an independent pro-Mahan committee. 

If two Republicans appear positioned to advance, unions and allied committees will not remain passive. They will consolidate behind a Democrat, and in “support” of a Republican, and spend what is necessary to secure both in the top two positions. Their objective is risk containment.

The “two Republicans advance” theory depends not just on Democratic vote-splitting but also on inaction by institutions whose influence depends on preventing precisely that outcome.

Such inaction is improbable.

Of course, this begs the question: If outside forces decide to elevate a Republican to shape the general election, which Republican would they select?